In the world of digital connectivity today, nothing is beyond our reach … not even space. As SpaceX’s Starlink pioneers the way forward by bringing high-speed internet from the heavens, the world watches intently. But Starlink is just the beginning of a colossal battle between two tech titans – SpaceX and AMAZON – with each company vying to take away the metaphorical crown in the upcoming ‘war of the consumer-internet constellations’. Today, we’ll be looking at the potential profits behind Starlink and uncovering what the future of internet out in the cosmos holds for us.
It’s been 6½ years since I spoke to Heldman, and in those intervening years, the Starlink operational fleet has grown to three and a half times its size, revolutionising high-speed internet while cementing SpaceX as the satellite internet industry’s unrivalled champion. The question of whether or not Starlink is profitable is, now, an open one.
Quilty Space’s latest report gives a loud ‘hell yes’. Starlink will grow from nearly zero revenue two years ago to $6.6 billion in 2024, all based on a growing subscriber base that is now nudging 3 million, and a hard-nosed strategy for keeping costs down. Quilty Space thinks Starlink will generate $600 million in free cash flow this year. That’s a reason for satellite communications providers to weep tears of joy.
But now that Starlink is growing from an experimental project into a real business, the focus is on its future. The speed and scale of its growth have set a bar for performance and access that other satellite systems will have to top. Meanwhile, a crowded cosmos is ahead – not to mention a crowded market.
But while Starlink is cruising upward, soon to dominate the skies, AMAZON’s megaconstellation project, called Project Kuiper, is far from an underdog contender. The Jeff Bezos-backed project could fast become a serious player. AMAZON’s entry into the space race highlights the potential of satellite internet and how big a global connectivity appetite could be.
But ultimately, the competition between Starlink and AMAZON’s Project Kuiper could have implications that go far beyond the competition for market leadership. Their confrontation represents in microcosm the war for technological supremacy and internet democratisation that is taking place on a global stage. Two of the world’s most technologically advanced companies will compete on a grand scale to drive innovation forward, lowering barriers to entry and providing consumers with valuable benefits.
Meanwhile, several additional players, including OneWeb, have their own networks coming online alongside Starlink and AMAZON. Low-Earth orbit is getting crowded. Can near-Earth space handle higher and higher populations of satellites, safely and efficiently? The answer depends as much on space policy and international cooperation as it does on technology.
The saga of Starlink and the looming arrival of AMAZON’s Project Kuiper indicates a future in which universal, ubiquitous internet access becomes a distinct possibility. The space internet age is just beginning, but the frontier it conjures now feels limitless, like the cosmos itself. This Essay is part of a collection initiated at Columbia University’s Space Law and Policy Centre, and supported by the Columbia Climate School.
AMAZON’s Project Kuiper has its eye on the heavens. Designed to significantly expand access to low-latency, high-speed broadband connectivity across the globe, Kuiper will build an elliptical satellite constellation of more than 3,000 satellites. Its goal is to make extensive broadband access as universal as the people who have been making the adventurous leap into space since the dawn of history. Today, AMAZON boasts a formidable space programme that, while impressive, has only scratched the surface of the e-commerce and technology goliath’s technological advancements. From the leading cloud services provider through cutting-edge consumer electronics, AMAZON seeks out the new frontiers for its enterprising imagination that is second to none. As any innovator knows, the beyond is bursting with opportunities, and for AMAZON the surprising is sure to become a part of everyday life.
Looking at the triumphs of Starlink and the experiments of AMAZON, we’re on the cusp of an empirical frontier of connectivity. From the perspective of the night sky, it’s no longer a matter of stars and planets: it’s an invisible web of internet connections that pulls us, and eventually binds us all, towards a future without digital divides.
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