Defence technology is being disrupted from the bottom up, with startups like Anduril Industries contending with the Pentagon fat cats of the military-industrial complex for control of the marching orders in a new era of smart, autonomous battlefield systems. Anduril, founded in 2017 by the virtual reality entrepreneur Palmer Luckey, has become one of the early leaders of the drone swarming charge into tomorrow’s wars. Smarter, more autonomous systems are poised to transform more aspects of the battlespace than any previous disruptive wave of drone technology.
Their rise owes itself to a transformation of the defence sector, in which once-monolithic titans such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin are yielding ground to a wave of nimble startups. Armed with an ambition to create robotic warfare for the future and a shrewd ability to prototype aggressively, Anduril has planted its flag front and centre in the Pentagon’s ambitious programme to create autonomous combat systems, starting with its Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).
The trend toward autonomy is even more profound than simply augmenting current war-fighting capabilities: it’s about changing the very nature of war-fighting. Drones operating in swarms (which Anduril’s prototype CCA aircraft and General Atomics’s products are designed to do) will be able to carry out a variety of missions with minimal human involvement, from general reconnaissance and surveillance to electronic warfare.
What makes the drone swarms concept uniquely different from piling more metal on more metal is the tight coupling of individual robots into a highly communicative networked unit able to make rapid decisions in the flow of battle. The swarm approach leverages the optimal combination of defensive sink-the-submarine problem, maximising the strengths of each individual unit while minimising their vulnerabilities. Beyond just mounting more hardware on more hardware, what makes swarms a game-changer is the emergent dimension of flexibility and ruggedness. In theory, a swarm of drones could transform combat dynamics by providing both offensive and defensive advantages.
At the centre of that transformation is the automation of military forces with software and artificial intelligence (AI). Anduril’s Lattice is a software stack for ‘networking together a wide variety of sensors and weapons’. Software is becoming the frontline of war. Hardware and software are converging to define different kinds of weapons.
This also reflects a broader trend towards unmanned systems that is taking place across the world, informed not only by what is happening in Ukraine, but by operational lessons learned in other conflicts as well. Unmanned technology is often seen as a gamechanger, and the conflicts in Ukraine have seemingly proven just that. We’ve seen how drones can potentially shift the strategic equation, and this will likely prompt a further wave of innovation and investment in unmanned technology. Anduril’s pursuit of autonomous drone swarms, then, shouldn’t be seen in isolation: it points to a broader reconfiguration of military capabilities towards more flexible, scalable and cost-effective solutions.
As the autonomous capabilities of drone swarms continue to improve, so too will our ethical and strategic struggles about their use. Fully autonomous, life-or-death decisions by battle systems create deep concerns that we must finally address. Policymakers and military leaders are wrestling with the ethical and strategic pressures. Whether the question is how we fight or whether we fight at all, our choices aren’t distant possibilities, but integral parts of our present and near future.
Drones come in various forms, including aerial, ground and maritime-based systems, each with different features and functions, and capable of working alone or as parts of a swarm. Whether armed or not, drones are proving to be flexible and rapidly developing technology, and today they are at the forefront of military operations, recalibrating the very nature of how states prepare for and fight wars.
This transformation makes firms like Anduril as critical to the overall strategic dialogue about the future of war as they are to the business of selling equipment. For better or worse, the role of drones in warfare is likely to be felt through the frameworks of defence planning, international security and the ethics of technology for decades to come.
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