Now, at a time that appears ripe for revolution, a new age of artificial intelligence (AI) beckons, but this time the prospect carries as much dread as promise. There are fewer than seven decades between the advent of AI at a conference in Dartmouth and today. That time might as well be nowhere. Such is the tension that lies at the heart of this essay – the tension between its subject’s promise and evasion. Google is one of the drama’s principal participants.
Critics of AI progress are fond of writing off work like ChatGPT, or Google’s AI Overview, as just so many digital magic tricks. But this handwaving overlooks the real progress that is actually happening here. Anti-AI bloviators, who are being baited by the occasional mistake and forced to trust their instincts, can’t obscure the real progress. For every stumble, a company like Google learns something – and takes another step forward.
While talking about AI, people like to fixate upon dangers – analogies to disasters past, worries about uniqueness, and so on. These criticisms exist because people care so much, and because the growing influence of AI is so consequential. To say AI’s influence is increasing is to say AI is controversial. It’s a battle that rages on, no matter how loud it is. And the insinuation that Google and its kin are gambling on developmental risk in their releases, that there is a certain ‘hail-mary’ quality in releasing imperfect models as fast as possible – well, that’s at the core of the movement.
Behind the sound and fury of anthropomorphic controversy, though, AI is already changing the world in imperceptible ways. It promises no longer to be able to write software in the same way, or to follow the same canonical rules and protocols, or to be as inefficient as we currently are. There may well be job losses on the way, which is a perfectly legitimate concern. At the same time, there is no doubt that AI has the potential to make human effort more efficient and effective – and Google is leading the charge.
Trust in, or distrust of, giants like Google plays a huge role in driving the AI discourse; an evolutionary timetable that feels inexorable speeds up that distrust, and speeds up fears about both motives and outcomes. Open-source transparency initiatives suggest routes back over these divides. A commitment to share the knowledge with the public, and democratising AI innovation, should be central to disabusing people of their fears and misconceptions.
However, AI’s current spectacular successes, along with the ominous spectre of the coming of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) – still a very distant prospect, but one that intrigues some and alarms others – has left the agenda more unsettled than when it began. The development of AGI is a controversial and nebulous goal, some argue. It has diverted resources away from applications of AI that can have an immediate impact on the real world. For Google and many others, the focus on AGI might be just a distraction. Maybe they would do better to concentrate on exploiting and improving the current capabilities of AI, rather than chasing those that might be developed in the distant future.
Google’s trajectory in AI development represents a larger arc of the technology’s history. The company’s rise through pathbreaking innovations to a period of public disillusionment exemplifies the duality that defines AI: can it live up to its own sky-high hype amid a darkening cloud of dystopia? By examining Google’s approach – an insistence on innovation combined with attempts to rein in the technology’s perpetual commercial imperative and growing existential threat – we begin to see how AI will shape our future, and the complications that lie ahead.
This sceptical quest for AI, full of false starts and dry wells, was also a harbinger of profound change. The possibility that technology might transform brains and experiences profoundly appears inevitable. Companies such as Google are engineers of the future, not mere passengers. They want to shape a transformed world – a world whose artificial general intelligence could be the most powerful force to change what it is to be human in a generation, and quite possibly in all of history.
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